Thirteenth Edition | Report Date: (10/01 – 10/15) First Half of October 2026
Geographical Scope: The Capital, Aden (Sheikh Othman, Al Mansoura, Al Mualla, Khormaksar, Al Buraiqeh, Dar Saad, Sira, Al Tawahi)
Field Report Summary
This summary is followed by a more detailed report, a daily index of events, a dedicated analysis of the decline in safety and civil rights, a map of the districts, illustrated statistical indicators and updated urgent recommendations.
About This Issue
This thirteenth issue of the “Radar Aden” series continues the analytical approach adopted in previous issues and presents an expanded, documented picture of conditions in the eight districts of the capital Aden during the first half of October 2026. It was a period in which the capital returned to the circle of missile and drone targeting after a long spell of relative calm, coinciding with the 63rd anniversary of the 14 October Revolution and the large-scale mass mobilisation that accompanied it in Al-Orood Square. The report draws on direct testimonies and field observations from the platform’s network of more than 200 female and male volunteers, alongside daily monitoring of developments. This issue adds a dedicated analysis of the decline in safety and civil rights, and a map of the capital’s districts coloured according to the classification indicators.
Quick Summary
The return of direct targeting of the capital Aden was the defining feature of the first half of October 2026. A drone that was shot down over Al-Mamlah (Rimi neighbourhood) on 2 October fell less than one hundred metres from homes; three successive explosions shook the vicinity of Aden International Airport and Badr camp on 7 October; the airport’s surroundings were targeted again on 9–10 and 14 October; and on 15 October six ballistic missiles struck the area around Maashiq Palace, the Coalition camp and the Salah Al-Din and Huqat neighbourhoods while the Prime Minister and members of the government were present — all of whom survived. The attack killed six members of the guard force (two Yemenis and four Saudis) and injured 16 others, and also damaged civilians’ homes.
The escalation coincided with sweeping security tightening, reflected in a clear decline in the margin of safety and civil rights. Monitoring and platform follow-up documented 13 incidents affecting safety or civil rights, compared with two in the second half of September. These included the detention of a journalist for posting a video clip of the attack, the detention of people violating filming instructions, the cordoning-off of the Al-Qalua neighbourhood in Al-Tawahi, instructions issued by a police station not to allow displaced people to rent housing, and complaints of hotel raids and arbitrary arrests without prosecution orders.
On services, a gradual and fragile improvement in electricity began on 9 October after emergency diesel quantities arrived and loads fell with the onset of winter. Average outage per supply period fell in Al-Mansoura from 9 hours in Issue No. 12 to about 8.5 hours, and in Dar Saad from 7 to 3.5 hours, while Sheikh Othman remained the worst (8.5 hours). However, electricity disruption halted the main water-pumping stations, cutting water to Sirah, Al-Tawahi and parts of Al-Mualla and Khor Maksar for days before pumping resumed on 11 October; the price of a water tanker reached YER 22,000.
Economically, prices of staples and fuel rose by an average of 8.0% between September and October. The highest increase, 17.9%, was in the black-market price of a gas cylinder (YER 16,500 against the official YER 7,500), and the price of a kilo of tuna (thamad) jumped 33.3% in two weeks, while the exchange rate remained relatively stable at YER 410–413 per Saudi riyal and YER 1,565 per US dollar (buying).
Overview
This report, the thirteenth in the “Radar Aden” monitoring series, covers the period from 1 to 15 October 2026. It is based on field data collected by the network’s volunteers through its three forms (services and institutions; public mood; incidents and events), in addition to a daily narrative of events and a price-tracking file prepared by the volunteers. The period fell into three overlapping phases: a first week dominated by the electricity and fuel crisis, the influx of displaced people and the downing of two drones; a second phase (7–12 October) in which the airport’s surroundings were repeatedly targeted in parallel with improving electricity and the resumption of water pumping; and a third phase (13–15 October) in which mass mobilisation coincided with two missiles falling near the airport and then another missile attack on the Maashiq area.
Sirah and Khor Maksar topped the map of security incidents because of the targeting of the Maashiq and airport areas; Sheikh Othman remained the district worst affected in terms of services; Al-Mansoura stood out for its multiple risks (armed land grabbing and clashes, the Al-Nakheel Mall fire, water cuts and pressure from displaced people); and Dar Saad recorded the best electricity and water indicators, despite continuing sewage overflows in some of its neighbourhoods.
Follow-up on the Issues of Report No. 12
Issue No. 12 (16–30 September 2026) set out eight urgent response tracks. The following is a summary of their follow-up (full details later in the expanded section):
- Aden Governorate: no information was received on the installation of solar power systems for health facilities in Al-Buraiqa and Sirah; support for displacement camps in Al-Buraiqa continued with health kits from the Red Crescent (4 October).
- Electricity Corporation and Public Water Corporation: a relative improvement in outage hours since 9 October, but the “catastrophic” overflow in the Al-Luhoom neighbourhood of Dar Saad (3 October) points to a persisting sewage problem, and water pumping to Sirah and Al-Tawahi stopped for days.
- Ministry of Interior: no protocol for dealing with African migrants was announced, and the measures widened to include internally displaced people, with complaints of financial extortion and arbitrary arrests.
- Ministry of Industry and Trade: no campaign on fish markets was recorded despite the 33.3% rise in the price of tuna; on the other hand, inspection campaigns expanded in Al-Mansoura, Sheikh Othman, Al-Tawahi and Al-Mualla.
- Public Prosecution and judiciary: activist Moeen Al-Maqrahi was released on bail, with no announced results in the cases of the attack on the government official in Al-Mansoura and the threat against Al-Noor Mosque.
- District local authorities: free medical camps continued (the eye camp in Al-Mansoura), with no data on mass weddings, stray-dog control or child begging.
- Ministry of Health: tangible progress — a 9-truck medical convoy for dialysis and oncology centres, emergency solutions for the dialysis centre at Al-Sadaqa Hospital, and a new intensive care unit at Al-Jumhuriya Hospital.
- Ministry of Education: the Governor of Aden provided a number of fans and air conditioners to some schools in Aden.
Tracking Board for the Files of Issue No. 12
| File | In Issue No. 12 (16–30 September) | In this issue (1–15 October) | Direction |
| Aden Governorate / solar power and the displaced | Meeting to fund solar power for health facilities; Al-Firdous camp | No information on installation; health kits for Al-Buraiqa camps | Unconfirmed |
| Electricity | Outages of 4–13 hours; supply of 2–3 hours | Gradual improvement since 9 October; outages of 3–10 hours per period | Relative improvement |
| Water and sanitation | Sewage pumping station down in Dar Saad; Abdullah Ghanem crisis | “Catastrophic” overflow in Al-Luhoom; pumping to Sirah and Al-Tawahi stopped for days | Unchanged |
| Ministry of Interior / migrants | 3 campaigns against African migrants and reports of extortion | No announced protocol; measures extended to internally displaced people | Worsening |
| Trade oversight and fish | Sharp rise in fish prices | Tuna +33.3%; inspection campaigns in four districts | Partial progress |
| Public Prosecution and judiciary | Open cases without results | Activist Moeen Al-Maqrahi released on bail; other cases without results | Limited progress |
| Health | Medicines for chronic diseases and dialysis ran out | Medical convoy, solutions and a new intensive care unit | Progress |
| Education | Students fainting because of power cuts | Air conditioners and fans provided to some schools by the Governor | Progress |
Impact of Previous Reports (A “Radar Aden” Success Story)
From Field Monitoring to Institutional Response
During this period, the “Radar Aden” platform recorded three steps that platform follow-up described as direct responses to recommendations repeated in its issues: a field campaign to inspect pharmaceutical establishments and control the pricing of life-saving medicines (9 October); an exercise carried out by the Civil Defence Department on evacuating government buildings and vital facilities (10 October); and the arrival of a Saudi relief convoy of 9 trucks loaded with medicines and medical supplies for public hospitals and dialysis and oncology centres (11–12 October) — a file that Issue No. 12 explicitly recommended in its track addressed to the Ministry of Health.
In addition, Al-Mansoura District continued its oversight and service model: preventive maintenance of the main sewage station (13 October), an inspection tour of rice, flour and sugar warehouses, the detection of a bakery cheating with red flour (12 October), the closure of 4 commercial gas stations that raised prices (4 October), and a free camp for the early detection of eye diseases targeting 600 cases (12 October).
Success Story in Brief
The medical convoy for dialysis and oncology centres stands as the most prominent model of this issue, because it represents a direct response to a recommendation in Issue No. 12 and arrived less than two weeks after the end of the period that issue covered. It is joined by the Civil Defence exercise, which gained doubled importance with the return of missile targeting. By contrast, no response was recorded on the civil-rights files recommended by previous issues — the most notable gap addressed by the response map in this issue.
Key Challenges and Field Indicators
- Return of direct targeting of the capital: six incidents of drones being shot down or missiles falling around the airport and residential neighbourhoods, the most serious being the six-missile attack on the area around Maashiq Palace on 15 October, which left six members of the guard force dead and 16 injured and damaged civilians’ homes.
- Decline in safety and civil rights: 13 documented incidents affecting six dimensions (armed targeting, detention, freedom of expression, discrimination, movement and housing, and armed land grabbing), compared with two incidents across three dimensions in the second half of September.
- Water crisis concurrent with electricity: the shutdown of pumping stations in Al-Barzakh and the Bir Ahmed fields cut water to Sirah, Al-Tawahi and parts of Al-Mualla and Khor Maksar for days, and pushed the price of a water tanker up to YER 18,000–22,000.
- Stigmatising rhetoric against the displaced: rising rhetoric blaming displaced people for the deterioration and describing them as “sleeper cells”, reaching altercations on public transport and instructions restricting their housing.
- Armed land grabbing: armed groups exploited the security services’ preoccupation with the front lines to seize land between Al-Haswa and Bir Fadl in Al-Mansoura, leading to armed clashes.
- Rising prices: an average of 8.0% for staples and fuel within one month, 17.9% for a black-market gas cylinder, and jumps of 11.1% to 36.4% in fish, fruit and some vegetables within two weeks.
District Classification Matrix by Overall Status (1–15 October)
| District | Overall classification | Main services indicator | Main security/community indicator |
| Sheikh Othman | Very critical (unchanged) | Longest outage (about 17 hours a day); water cut for more than 3 years | Land grabbing and old disputes; fears of sleeper cells |
| Sirah | Very critical (new classification) | Water stopped for days; water tanker YER 18,000 | Six-missile attack on the Maashiq area: 6 dead and 16 injured; journalist detained |
| Al-Buraiqa | Very critical (unchanged) | Outages of 5–7 hours per period; mixed pumping; gas available | Missile fell in Salah Al-Din; displacement camps |
| Al-Mansoura | Worrying, verging on critical (raised from worrying) | Water cut for days; health complex partly running on generators | Armed land grabbing and clashes; Al-Nakheel Mall fire; drone near Rimi |
| Dar Saad | Worrying, verging on critical (unchanged) | Best electricity (3–4 hours); continuous pumping | “Catastrophic” overflow in Al-Luhoom and Al-Musabbin; night-time thefts |
| Al-Tawahi | Worrying, verging on critical (unchanged) | Water stopped for days; water tanker YER 20,000 | Al-Qalua cordoned off, movement restricted and a displaced person evicted |
| Khor Maksar | Worrying (raised from relatively stable) | Water cut to neighbourhoods for days; tanker YER 22,000 | Repeated targeting of the airport area; road closures during the mobilisation |
| Al-Mualla | Worrying (unchanged) | Water affected by pumping-station shutdowns; main line repaired | Thefts of gas cylinders; hostile rhetoric toward the displaced |
Response Map (Key Urgent Recommendations)
Based on the field indicators documented during the period, the “Radar Aden” platform recommends urgent action through the following tracks:
- To Aden Governorate: assess the damage to civilians’ homes in Sirah, compensate those affected and officially document the dead and injured, and publish the texts of official decisions as soon as they are issued to cut off rumours.
- To the Ministry of Interior: tie any arrest to a prosecution order, revoke any instructions barring displaced people from renting housing, regulate filming through published rules instead of detention, and confront armed land grabbing.
- To the Civil Defence: circulate warning and shelter guidance to residents near the airport, Maashiq and military camps, extend evacuation drills to schools and markets, and review fire-safety requirements in shopping centres.
- To the Local Corporation for Electricity and Water: secure regular diesel supplies to power stations, give power priority to the water-pumping stations in Al-Barzakh and Bir Ahmed, and control water-tanker prices.
- To the Ministry of Industry and Trade: monitor compliance of the 67 announced gas stations with the official price, and activate the oversight of fish markets recommended by Issue No. 12.
Details of each track and its full field evidence are set out in the comprehensive report.
Detailed Report
Introduction
This report, issued by the “Radar Aden” platform as part of its periodic field-monitoring series, provides a detailed analysis of service, security and economic conditions in the eight districts of the capital Aden during the first half of October 2026. It draws on three field-monitoring forms completed by the network’s female and male volunteers (services and public institutions; public mood and rumours; incidents and events), in addition to an expanded daily narrative of events and a file tracking the prices of staples, fish, vegetables and fruit.
This period was a direct continuation of the repercussions of the military escalation on the west coast documented in Issues No. 11 and 12, but it brought a qualitative shift: whereas the impact of the war used to reach Aden through waves of displacement and news from the front lines, the city itself became a direct target for missiles and drones. This coincided with large-scale mass mobilisation in Al-Orood Square marking the 63rd anniversary of the 14 October Revolution, and with security tightening whose effects extended to the civil rights of residents and displaced people.
This report follows the same methodology used in previous issues: a first section offering an executive summary for decision-makers, and a second section offering the detailed analysis supported by data tables, illustrated statistical indicators and direct field testimonies from volunteers, followed by the classification of districts across the three axes, the response map and comparisons across successive issues. This issue adds a dedicated section analysing the decline in safety and civil rights, and a map of the capital’s districts coloured according to the classification.
It is important to stress that this report does not aim to provide a military or strategic analysis of field developments; its role is limited to documenting the direct impact of these developments on the daily lives of the residents of the capital Aden from a service and humanitarian perspective. The figures and prices presented are direct field observations and are no substitute for a comprehensive official survey; rumours are presented as material for gauging the public mood, not as confirmed information; and incidents based on a single source are marked as such where they appear.
Index of Days
The following graphic summarises the main event recorded on each day of the period (1–15 October 2026), classified by type (security, services, political, civic/initiative, social):
Follow-up on the Issues of the Previous Report
Report No. 12 (16–30 September 2026) set out eight urgent response tracks. The following is the outcome of their detailed follow-up, based on data from the first half of October:
Track One: Aden Governorate
Issue No. 12 recommended completing the funding and installation of solar power systems for health facilities in Al-Buraiqa and Sirah, and expanding the emergency absorption plan for the wave of displacement at Al-Firdous camp. No field information was received during this period on the start of installation. Meanwhile, the Yemeni Red Crescent carried out an emergency initiative and distributed health kits to displacement camps in Al-Buraiqa (4 October); the local authority, chaired by the Minister of State and Governor, held a meeting to address the gas and electricity crises (6 October); and the Governor held an emergency security and military meeting following the Maashiq attack (15 October). The relevant authorities also discussed a project to rehabilitate public lighting with solar power in Al-Buraiqa, and solar lighting poles were observed being installed in the Al-Dumaina neighbourhood of Dar Saad at the start of the second half of the month.
Track Two: Local Corporation for Electricity and Water
Issue No. 12 recommended urgent treatment of the breakdown of the sewage pumping station in Dar Saad and a review of load-shedding schedules in Sheikh Othman. On electricity, the first week of October saw a further decline due to delays in the arrival of diesel batches allocated to the power stations (PetroMasila, Al-Haswa and Al-Mansoura): outages reached 6–8 hours against two hours of supply. Gradual improvement then began on 9 October as loads fell with the onset of winter and 30,000 metric tonnes of diesel were unloaded into the Aden Refinery tanks (8 October). Supply hours rose on 11 October to 4 hours against 4 hours of outage, and in Khor Maksar on 15 October reached 3 hours of supply against two hours of outage.
Sheikh Othman, however, remained the worst: a report from the Abdullah Ghanem neighbourhood (12 October) cited outages of 7–8 hours in the morning and 9–10 hours in the evening. On sanitation, sewage overflowed “catastrophically” again in the Al-Luhoom neighbourhood of Dar Saad (3 October) and in Al-Musabbin, with no announcement of repairs to the pumping station; at the start of the second half of the month, sewage manholes were observed being sealed in the Al-Dumaina neighbourhood. On water, electricity disruption halted the pumping stations in Al-Barzakh and the Bir Ahmed fields and cut water to Sirah and Al-Tawahi for days, before the corporation launched an exceptional rotational pumping programme on 11–12 October.
Track Three: Ministry of Interior
Issue No. 12 recommended opening an investigation into reports of extortion of African migrants and establishing a humanitarian and legal protocol for dealing with them. No investigation or protocol was announced during the period, and the numbers of those detained or deported were not disclosed. Instead, the measures widened to include internally displaced people: complaints of hotel raids, arbitrary arrests, financial extortion and threats of arrest that reached a worker at a UN agency (4 October); instructions from a police station not to allow displaced people to rent homes; and a census of displaced people and checks of their documents in some neighbourhoods. The dedicated section analysing safety and civil rights addresses these incidents in detail.
Track Four: Ministry of Industry and Trade
Issue No. 12 recommended activating oversight of the fish markets in Sirah and Al-Buraiqa and expanding Al-Mansoura’s oversight model. No campaign on fish markets was recorded, while the price of a kilo of tuna (thamad) rose from YER 12,000 to 16,000 (+33.3%) and sakhla fish from YER 18,000 to 20,000 during the period. On the other hand, oversight activity expanded: inspection campaigns in Sheikh Othman and Al-Mansoura targeting shops and wholesale warehouses, a field visit by the Director of Sheikh Othman District to monitor prices (6 October), the detection of violations at bakeries in Al-Tawahi (2 October), the destruction of expired goods in Al-Mualla (3 October), and the closure of 4 gas stations in Al-Mansoura (4 October).
Track Five: Public Prosecution and Judiciary
Issue No. 12 recommended issuing a public update on the cases open since Issue No. 11. During the period, activist Moeen Al-Maqrahi, accused in the case of the destruction of the “Aden Al-Ghad” newspaper, was released on bail, while no information was received on the results of the investigations into the armed attack on the home of the government official in Al-Mansoura or the bomb threat at Al-Noor Mosque in Crater. The security services announced the referral of an armed-robbery gang in Dar Saad to the prosecution.
Track Six: District Local Authorities
No data was received on mass-wedding events, stray-dog control campaigns or measures against child begging, while free medical camps continued through the camp for the early detection of eye diseases in Al-Mansoura (12 October). Al-Tawahi municipality carried out a campaign to remove random street stalls (4 October), and the Cleaning Fund continued collecting rubbish and pruning trees on the main roads of Sheikh Othman.
Track Seven: Ministry of Public Health and Population
Tangible progress was recorded on this track: a Saudi medical convoy of 9 trucks arrived through the King Salman Humanitarian Aid and Relief Centre carrying medicines and supplies for public hospitals and dialysis and oncology centres (11–12 October); the dialysis centre at Al-Sadaqa Hospital received support in the form of emergency medical solutions (8 October); a new intensive care unit opened at Al-Jumhuriya Teaching Hospital (11 October); and a polio vaccination campaign was launched (2 October). By contrast, the Al-Mansoura health complex is operating only partially, relying on private generators, and the Kod Al-Othmani and Sheikh Othman Central complexes suffer shortages of staff and medicines.
Track Eight: Ministry of Education
No information was received on supplying schools with fans or solar panels. The Southern Teachers and Educators Union held a meeting to discuss pay and allowance settlements amid parents’ fears of a renewed school strike (3 October). In higher education, platform follow-up recorded for the first time the absence of students enrolled in the second level of the Faculty of Administrative Sciences at the University of Aden, owing to the requirements for allocating specialisations and to many students joining the fighting or the military forces. Students in the Shabwa Governorate student housing complained of electricity and water cuts and accumulated rubbish, with an initial response from the governorate (10 October).
Impact of Previous Reports (Detailed)
Alongside the most prominent model of this issue (the medical convoy for dialysis and oncology centres), the relevant authorities continued to record indicators of partial response to issues monitored by successive “Radar Aden” reports:
Success Story One: Pharmacy Inspection Campaign and Price Control of Life-Saving Medicines
On 9 October, the competent authorities carried out a field campaign to examine and inspect pharmaceutical establishments in the capital Aden, focused on controlling the pricing of life-saving medicines; platform follow-up described it as a success story built on Radar Aden’s repeated recommendations. The medicines file has been present in successive issues: Issue No. 11 recommended disbursing the delayed treatments of liver and kidney transplant patients, and Issue No. 12 documented that medicines for chronic diseases and dialysis had run out in the stores of government hospitals. The campaign matters because life-saving medicines tolerate neither delay nor substitutes, and price disparities multiply the burden on families at a time when staple prices rose by an average of 8.0% in a single month. The platform recommends turning the campaign into regular oversight with published results, including a published list of reference prices for essential medicines and a mechanism for receiving citizens’ complaints, so that its impact does not remain temporary.
Success Story Two: Civil Defence Drill on Evacuating Government Buildings and Vital Facilities
On 10 October, the Civil Defence Department organised a training drill on evacuating government buildings and vital facilities, which, according to platform follow-up, came after repeated recommendations from Radar Aden and community pressure. The drill came at a highly significant moment: days earlier, civil-defence teams had been unable to reach the Al-Nakheel Mall fire quickly because of crowds of onlookers, and three explosions had shaken the area around the airport and Badr camp; five days later, the area around Maashiq Palace was hit by six missiles while the Prime Minister and members of the government were present. Evacuation readiness is therefore no longer a theoretical measure but a necessity for protecting lives in government and sovereign facilities and civilian gatherings. The platform recommends building on this drill and expanding it to schools, hospitals, markets and shopping centres, and circulating simple guidance to residents near targeted facilities on warning, shelter and evacuation.
Success Story Three: Medical Convoy for Dialysis and Oncology Centres
On 11–12 October, a Saudi relief convoy of 9 large trucks arrived in the capital Aden through the King Salman Humanitarian Aid and Relief Centre, loaded with medicines and medical supplies for public hospitals, dialysis centres and oncology centres. The convoy is the clearest response to the recommendation of Issue No. 12 to the Ministry of Health to speed up contracting with international partners to cover the depletion of medicines for chronic diseases and dialysis: it arrived less than two weeks after the end of the period covered by that issue, and was preceded on 8 October by the dialysis centre at Al-Sadaqa Hospital in Sheikh Othman receiving emergency medical solutions from a grant of the same centre. The challenge remains sustainability: dialysis and cancer patients need a regular supply, not sporadic shipments. The platform therefore recommends announcing the plan for distributing the shipment among facilities, ensuring continuity of supply, and following up to confirm that the medicines actually reach patients.
Other Indicators of Partial Response
- Al-Mansoura District continued its combined oversight model: preventive maintenance of the main sewage station (13 October), an inspection tour of goods warehouses, the detection of a bakery cheating with red flour (12 October), and the arrest of a gang stealing copper cables and telecommunications lines (10 October).
- School bags distributed to the poorest families in Dar Saad (8 October), solar lighting installed and sewage manholes sealed in the Al-Dumaina neighbourhood.
- A main water pipeline repaired on Al-Shahid Mudram Street in Al-Mualla (2 October), and emergency maintenance of sewage drainage lines at the Al-Ful roundabout in Crater (7 October).
- A circular from Aden Security Command banning celebratory gunfire at occasions and weddings (7 October), and the start of payment of dues to civilian and military retirees and those forcibly retired, through accredited banks.
The early-detection eye camp in Al-Mansoura, the Pink Tent at Aden Mall, and solar lighting in the Al-Dumaina neighbourhood of Dar Saad — Source: Radar Aden volunteers
Al-Mansoura’s oversight model remains the most consistent across the last three issues, having moved from cleaning campaigns to regular supply and health oversight, while the Ministry of Health’s rapid response to the recommendation of Issue No. 12 shows that specific recommendations addressed to a particular body achieve faster impact than general ones.
First: Basic Services and Public Institutions Sector
1. The Electricity, Gas and Fuel Crisis
All monitored districts recorded a fixed pattern of supply not exceeding two to three hours in each of the morning and evening periods; the difference between them lay in the length of outages: 7–8 hours in the morning and 9–10 in the evening in the Abdullah Ghanem neighbourhood of Sheikh Othman (12 October); 6–7 hours morning and evening in the Al-Taqniya, Rimi, Najwa Makkawi and Kabota neighbourhoods of Al-Mansoura (14 October), then 4–6 hours in Al-Kathiri (15 October); 5–7 hours in Salah Al-Din in Al-Buraiqa (14 October); and only 3–4 hours in the Al-Luhoom neighbourhood of Dar Saad (15 October). This means total daily outages ranged from about 7 hours in Dar Saad to about 17 hours in Sheikh Othman.
The comparison with Issue No. 12 shows improvement in all districts with readings in both issues, the largest in Dar Saad (from 7 to 3.5 hours per period) and Al-Mansoura (from 9 to about 5.8 hours). This improvement, however, came from shorter outages rather than longer supply, and remains fragile and dependent on regular diesel supplies: reports received at the start of the second half of the month indicated that outages had returned to 6–8 hours in Sheikh Othman, Al-Mansoura and Khor Maksar. Residents of Al-Mansoura said the cuts “differ from area to area, from neighbourhood to neighbourhood and from house to house”, and reported wires that “become electrified and turn into embers” and could fall at any time.
On domestic gas, most service assessments described gas as “available with difficulty through the black market” (Sheikh Othman, Al-Mansoura and Dar Saad), compared with easy availability in Salah Al-Din in Al-Buraiqa and Al-Kathiri in Al-Mansoura. The local authority and the gas company published a list of 67 operating filling stations to enforce the official price (YER 7,500 per cylinder), but queues persisted in front of stations in Sheikh Othman and Al-Mansoura, and the black-market price of a cylinder reached YER 16,500.
As for fuel, all assessments confirmed the availability of local and imported fuel, and the Oil Company announced continued pumping of petrol at the official price (YER 28,400 per 20-litre can), while a can of imported commercial petrol cost YER 32,400 and diesel YER 31,500 according to the price-tracking file. Nevertheless, transport remained “difficult and scarce” in Al-Mualla, Al-Mansoura, Al-Tawahi and Sirah, and was severely affected by road closures during the events of 13–14 October.
2. Deterioration of Water and Sanitation
Water conditions varied sharply between districts. In Sheikh Othman, the water cut to the Abdullah Ghanem neighbourhood has exceeded three years, and some residents have resorted to digging wells or to illegal connections; in Al-Mansoura, “repeated cuts lasting several days, with pumping arriving very weakly” were recorded in Rimi, and residents of Al-Kathiri gave up on the network in favour of water bowsers. Electricity disruption halted the main pumping stations in Al-Barzakh and the Bir Ahmed fields, cutting water to Sirah, Al-Tawahi and parts of Al-Mualla and Khor Maksar for days. The hillside areas of Sirah (Jabal Al-Badri and Al-Tawila) and the Al-Fath and Jabal Al-Tilal neighbourhoods of Al-Tawahi suffered severe cuts, before the Water Corporation resumed pumping to Sirah and Al-Tawahi on 11 October. By contrast, assessments in Dar Saad and Al-Buraiqa reported continuous pumping, with a note of cuts lasting three to four days against one day of pumping in some parts of Salah Al-Din.
This was reflected in the prices of water tankers: on 7 October, residents complained that a tanker cost YER 18,000 in Crater, YER 20,000 in Al-Tawahi and YER 22,000 in Khor Maksar. On sanitation, overflows recurred “catastrophically” in the Al-Luhoom neighbourhood of Dar Saad (3 October) and Al-Musabbin, on the main street of Al-Qalua (Al-Tawahi), and on Al-Tisseen Street and the Kabota neighbourhoods (Al-Mansoura). Residents of Sheikh Othman said the sewage office does not respond to reports and that they are forced to pay workers up to YER 25,000 to clear blockages.
Sewage overflow in Kabota Al-Tahrir and waste piling up in an alley in Al-Mansoura — Source: Radar Aden volunteers
3. Infrastructure Risks and Public Safety
Volunteers repeatedly recorded “exposed or dangling electricity wires”, “deep unfenced pits”, “sewage overflow covering the road”, “a major water leak” and “piles of rubbish, construction waste and wrecked cars” in Sheikh Othman, Al-Mansoura and Dar Saad. The most serious incident was a major fire that broke out shortly before sunset on 6 October at Al-Nakheel Mall in Al-Mansoura, spreading from the cafeteria and market side. Volunteers suggested it was caused by an electrical short circuit and that the external cladding material contributed to its spread. It caused heavy material losses and cases of smoke inhalation treated on site with no deaths, and closed the premises for nearly a week; civil defence was unable to reach it quickly because of crowds of onlookers. Residents in Al-Mualla also reported break-ins and thefts at homes and properties, including gas cylinders and belongings left next to houses. Platform follow-up pointed to poor night-time lighting in the side streets of Dar Saad, which encouraged some thefts, and a fire in trees alongside the airport road was extinguished without losses (12 October).
4. Status of Public Institutions
Institutions at most sites continued to operate normally: schools, the police, the district building and the general hospital in Salah Al-Din in Al-Buraiqa (“schools/normal”, “police/normal”, “general hospital/normal”), the electricity office, the Al-Mansoura Court of First Instance and the Barbaa school in Al-Kathiri, the late Abdullah Sharaf school and the Hashed medical complex in Kabota, and Abdulbari Secondary School in Khor Maksar. By contrast, the Al-Mansoura health complex is operating partially, relying entirely on private generators, with shortages of operating resources and emergency services continuing; the Kod Al-Othmani and Sheikh Othman Central complexes suffer shortages of medical staff and medicines and operate a single shift; and activities at the Najwa Makkawi neighbourhood pitch have shrunk because of administrative disputes over Al-Ittihad sports club.
Table: Detailed Indicators by District
The following table is based on volunteers’ direct observations at the sites they visited and on platform follow-up, not on a comprehensive survey of each district.
| District | Electricity (approx. supply/outage) | Water | Domestic gas | Key observation |
| Sheikh Othman | 2-3 h supply / 7-10 h outage | Cut off (chronic, over 3 years) | Black market | Longest outage; sewage office unresponsive |
| Sirah | No regular measurement | Stopped for days, resumed 11 October | — | Maashiq attack; water tanker 18,000 |
| Al-Buraiqa | 2-3 h supply / 5-7 h outage | Continuous pumping, days-long cuts in parts | Readily available | Institutions operating normally; displacement camps |
| Al-Mansoura | 2-3 h supply / 4-7 h outage | Cut for days; reliance on bowsers | Mixed | Al-Nakheel Mall fire; health complex partly operating |
| Dar Saad | 2-3 h supply / 3-4 h outage | Continuous pumping | Black market | Lowest outages; “catastrophic” overflow in Al-Luhoom |
| Al-Tawahi | No regular measurement | Stopped for days; weak in Al-Fath and Jabal Al-Tilal | — | Water tanker 20,000; overflow in Al-Qalua |
| Khor Maksar | 3 h supply / 2 h outage (15 October) | Neighbourhoods cut for days | — | Water tanker 22,000; transformer fault (2 October) |
| Al-Mualla | No regular measurement | Affected by pumping-station shutdowns | — | Main line repaired on Mudram Street |
Second: Security and Political Dynamics
Brief background: Issues No. 11 and 12 documented the fall of the city of Mocha and its repercussions on Aden through a major wave of displacement from the west coast concentrated in Al-Buraiqa and Dar Saad, and repeated security campaigns against African migrants in Sheikh Othman. In this issue, the impact of the conflict moved to a new level: the capital itself became a direct target for missiles and drones, in parallel with continued confrontations on its outskirts on the Al-Wazi’iya and Al-Barh fronts in Taiz Governorate and Al-Madaribah in Lahj Governorate, and attempts to cut the Taiz–Aden road, according to platform follow-up.
1. The Return of Missile and Drone Targeting to the Capital
According to volunteers’ reports and platform follow-up, reconnaissance and attack drones flew over the city on every day of the period. Two were shot down on 2 and 4 October, the first falling in Al-Mamlah in the Rimi neighbourhood less than one hundred metres from a residential area. Then on 7 October three violent successive explosions shook the city, less than a minute apart, as a result of the interception of ballistic missiles and drones launched by the Houthi group toward Aden International Airport and Badr camp. Apartment windows shook in Al-Mansoura and Al-Mualla, and material damage was recorded in the immediate vicinity of the camp, with no human casualties inside the airport.
The airport’s surroundings were targeted again on 9–10 October, with a temporary emergency halt to air traffic and an incoming flight diverted to Al-Rayyan Airport in Hadramout before returning; flights resumed regularly on 10 October. On 14 October two missiles fell around the airport without human losses, and passengers of a civilian aircraft were evacuated as a precaution while flights were temporarily suspended to confirm the safety of the runway. On 15 October the area around Maashiq Palace in Sirah District was hit by six ballistic missiles: one fell in the Salah Al-Din area, two in the Coalition camp and one in the adjacent Huqat neighbourhood, while two targeted the palace while the Prime Minister and members of the government were present — all of whom survived. Volunteers reported damage to civilians’ homes and widespread tension and fear, especially in homes close to military camps.
According to the account adopted in platform follow-up, the 15 October attack killed six members of the guard force — two Yemenis and four Saudis — and injured 16 others, in addition to damaging civilians’ homes close to the impact sites. The attack drew wide Arab, international and UN condemnation, and the Governor of Aden held an emergency security and military meeting to strengthen defensive measures around sovereign facilities.
Table of Documented Attacks on the Capital Aden (1–15 October 2026)
| Date | Location | Incident | Documented impact | Source |
| 2 October | Al-Mansoura (Al-Mamlah – Rimi) | Drone shot down | Fell less than 100 metres from a residential area | Platform follow-up |
| 4 October | Aden | Second drone shot down | No damage recorded | Platform follow-up |
| 7 October | Khor Maksar (airport and Badr camp) | Three explosions from intercepted missiles and drones | Material damage around the camp; no injuries inside the airport | Field report |
| 9–10 October | Khor Maksar (airport area) | Drones and missiles intercepted; two missiles fell | Temporary emergency halt and a flight diverted to Al-Rayyan Airport | Platform follow-up |
| 14 October | Khor Maksar (airport area) | Two missiles fell | No human losses; precautionary evacuation of aircraft passengers | Platform follow-up |
| 15 October | Sirah (Maashiq and Huqat) and Salah Al-Din | Six ballistic missiles | 6 dead (2 Yemenis and 4 Saudis) and 16 injured among the guards; damage to civilians’ homes | Field report and platform follow-up |
2. Mass Mobilisation in Al-Orood Square (13–14 October)
On 13 and 14 October, the capital Aden witnessed a huge gathering in Al-Orood Square in Khor Maksar District to mark the 63rd anniversary of the 14 October Revolution, under the slogan “Million-strong rally of general popular mobilisation in defence of the South”, in response to a speech by the President of the Southern Transitional Council, Aidarous Qassem Al-Zubaidi. Circulated coverage estimated the crowd at around 120,000 to 180,000 participants. The gathering began on the evening of 13 October in anticipation of the Council President’s appearance and a statement delivered via a screen erected in the square; as crowding increased, roads were closed. Delegations arrived from Shabwa, Hadramout, Socotra, Al-Mahra, Abyan, Yafa’, Al-Dhale’ and Lahj; the state Land Transport Corporation provided free buses to carry participants; and Ministry of Health ambulance teams were deployed around the square.
Reports indicated that the event “passed peacefully” overall, but it disrupted many businesses and interests because most roads were closed, and caused heavy traffic congestion across Al-Mansoura from one in the afternoon until ten at night. Platform follow-up recorded limited incidents: the carrying of weapons; Khor Maksar police arresting a person carrying hand grenades he tried to bring into the square area (11 October); an explosive device prepared for detonation found on one of the participants; an assault on a female correspondent and a media crew of a TV channel during coverage; and complaints of money and phones being stolen in the crowd. The closing statement adopted the contents of the Council President’s speech as a road map for the next phase. Supporters of the Transitional Council were seen in the squares again after an absence of about seven months, raising southern flags and pictures of political leaders in Al-Mansoura, Dar Saad, Al-Buraiqa and Sheikh Othman.
3. Analysis of the Decline in Safety and Civil Rights
This section addresses a specific question: did the level of safety and civil rights in Aden decline in the first half of October compared with the second half of September covered by Issue No. 12 — and if so, by how much and along which dimensions? The analysis is based on a count of the incidents documented in volunteers’ reports and platform follow-up for both periods, classifying each incident by the dimensions it affected, without merging them into a single composite score, since merging would hide the direction of each dimension and lend false precision to non-survey field data. Six dimensions were adopted:
- Armed targeting near civilians: missile or drone attacks that fell in the city or around inhabited facilities and neighbourhoods.
- Detention and arrest: detention or arrest without announced procedures or without prosecution orders, and the related raids.
- Freedom of expression and media: detention, threats or assault because of filming, posting or media coverage.
- Freedom of movement and housing: cordons and restrictions on entry and exit, bans on renting, or eviction from housing.
- Discrimination on the basis of origin or nationality: measures or practices targeting a particular group, such as migrants or displaced people, because of their origin.
- Armed land grabbing: seizing land or property by force of arms, exploiting the preoccupation of the security services.
Incidents Documented in the Two Periods
| Period | Incident | Source | Dimensions affected |
| 16–30 September | Security deployment and new checkpoints set up in Dar Saad (16 September) | Field report | Movement |
| 16–30 September | Campaigns detaining African migrants in Sheikh Othman, with warning shots fired, people taken to unknown locations and reports of deportation (28–30 September) | Field reports | Detention; discrimination |
| 1–15 October | A drone fell less than 100 metres from a residential area in Al-Mamlah (2 October) | Platform follow-up | Armed targeting |
| 1–15 October | Hotel raids, arbitrary arrests and financial extortion of displaced people, and a threat of arrest against a worker at a UN agency (4 October) | Platform follow-up | Detention; discrimination |
| 1–15 October | Three explosions around the airport and Badr camp, with material damage (7 October) | Field report | Armed targeting |
| 1–15 October | Al-Qalua cordoned off, movement restricted and a displaced person evicted from his home on an unverified suspicion (7 October) | Field report | Movement and housing; discrimination |
| 1–15 October | Two missiles fell around the airport and a flight was diverted (9–10 October) | Platform follow-up | Armed targeting |
| 1–15 October | Two missiles fell around the airport and aircraft passengers were evacuated (14 October) | Platform follow-up | Armed targeting |
| 1–15 October | Assault on a female correspondent and a media crew while covering the 14 October event | Platform follow-up | Expression and media |
| 1–15 October | Six-missile attack on the Maashiq area: 6 dead, 16 injured and damage to civilians’ homes (15 October) | Field report and platform follow-up | Armed targeting |
| 1–15 October | A journalist detained for posting a clip of the attack (15 October, according to circulated posts) | Field report (not officially confirmed) | Detention; expression |
| 1–15 October | Detention of people violating instructions on filming and posting military movements, and arrest of those filming damage or missiles | Field report and platform follow-up | Detention; expression |
| 1–15 October | Instructions from a police station to community committees not to allow displaced people to rent homes and apartments | Platform follow-up | Movement and housing; discrimination |
| 1–15 October | Dozens of arrests without prosecution directives on charges of belonging to the Houthis | Platform follow-up | Detention |
| 1–15 October | Armed land grabbing between Al-Haswa and Bir Fadl in Al-Mansoura, and armed clashes | Field report | Armed land grabbing |
Reading the Results
The comparison reveals a clear, multi-dimensional decline: the number of incidents affecting safety or civil rights rose from two in the second half of September to 13 in the first half of October, and their scope widened from three dimensions (detention, movement and discrimination) to all six. Armed targeting near civilians was the most prevalent dimension (5 incidents), after reports for the second half of September contained no direct targeting of the city, followed by detention and arrest (4 incidents), then freedom of expression and media and discrimination (3 incidents each).
The nature of the incidents makes clear that the decline was not limited to the external threat but extended to the internal response to it: the military escalation was accompanied by security tightening that reached filming, posting and housing, and discrimination shifted from targeting African migrants, as documented in Issue No. 12, to targeting internally displaced people, fuelled by “sleeper cell” rumours recorded in public-mood reports in Al-Mualla, Sirah, Al-Mansoura and Sheikh Othman. The emergence of armed land grabbing, exploiting the security services’ preoccupation with the front lines, also points to the beginning of a rule-of-law vacuum inside neighbourhoods.
In terms of perceived safety, 89% of public-mood reports described the security situation as worrying or tense, and phrases such as “zero hour has struck”, “the war will drag on” and “fear of a return of the 2015 war” recurred — whereas in Issue No. 12 anxiety centred on services, the value of the rial and fears of an “internal military coup”. This means the source of fear has moved from news of distant front lines and the livelihood crisis to direct targeting inside the city.
4. Internal Security: Checkpoints, Campaigns and Land Grabbing
Assessments reported fixed, permanent checkpoints in Al-Mansoura at entrances and strategic junctions such as the Kabota and Suzuki roundabouts, belonging to the Aden police and the Security Belt forces in coordination with the Giants Brigades and the Southern Armed Forces; permanent National Security checkpoints in Al-Buraiqa and Dar Saad; and temporary police checkpoints in Sheikh Othman. Al-Mansoura’s neighbourhoods saw intensive patrols and new fortifications and barriers to protect government facilities and judicial premises such as the Al-Mansoura Court of First Instance, while the Al-Buraiqa volunteer described the situation as “currently stable after a period of strong reinforcements”.
During the period, the security services announced the arrest of a suspect in an attempted assassination of a citizen in the Al-Mamdara neighbourhood of Sheikh Othman (4 October); the arrest of cells they said belonged to the Houthi group, one in possession of medium weapons and another of explosives; the foiling of an attempted infiltration by security and intelligence elements coming from the northern governorates through the entry points; and the seizure of a smuggled shipment of dual-use agricultural fertiliser at the Dofas checkpoint (8 October). Platform follow-up recorded the appearance of a new formation known as the “Deterrence Forces”, with black-painted vehicles and an emblem bearing a rifle and a sword, which raised residents’ fears of the return of extremist organisations before it emerged that it operated under the directives of the Fourth Military Region. It also recorded growing numbers of young men joining the front lines, particularly from low-paid unskilled labour.
5. Other Security Incidents and Community Disputes
- Armed land grabbing in Al-Mansoura: armed groups exploited the state of military alert to seize land between the Al-Haswa and Bir Fadl areas, prompting a security intervention that led to armed clashes, alongside attempts to seize properties and old personal disputes resurfacing in Al-Mualla and Sheikh Othman.
- Fabricated charges: a volunteer in Sheikh Othman reported attempts to fabricate charges of dealing with the Houthis against some individuals because of personal feuds or misunderstandings.
- Stigmatising rhetoric against the displaced: an altercation on a public bus in Al-Mualla after a passenger learned that another was displaced, calls to expel displaced people from the city, and rumours that displaced women had “infiltrated” to spread unconfirmed news
- Thefts in neighbourhoods: residents’ reports in Al-Mualla of break-ins and thefts of gas cylinders and belongings next to homes, night-time thefts in poorly lit side streets of Dar Saad, and the arrest of a gang stealing copper cables in Al-Mansoura.
- Positive civic events: the Pink Tent for breast-cancer awareness (1–5 October), the “Wejha” exhibition (1–2 October) and the mental-health corner (10–11 October) at Aden Mall; a youth seminar at the Dolphin Hall (6 October); a kindergarten celebration of the October Revolution anniversary in Al-Mansoura (15 October); a poetry morning at the Writers’ Union (9 October); and an exhibition of fine art and documentary photographs of the 14 October Revolution in Al-Mualla (12 October).
6. Public Mood and Circulating Rumours
Anxiety dominated popular conversation throughout the period, and tension rose after the airport attacks and then the Maashiq attack. Sources of anxiety ranged from fear of the war moving to Aden, of drones appearing at dawn between one and five o’clock according to residents of Al-Tawahi, and of “sleeper cells”, to discontent over electricity and prices. On the other hand, residents welcomed national events, cleaning campaigns, market oversight and the field visits of the Director of Al-Mansoura District, and praised the advance of forces on the west coast, while others criticised the lack of movement on other fronts to relieve pressure on the Taiz and Bab al-Mandab fronts.
Volunteers relayed direct statements from residents reflecting this mood:
“The war will drag on, and the security forces are not up to it”
“Eight hours without power, prices rising every day, the war at the gates — and the citizen bears all the hardship”
“We are afraid the 2015 war will come back”
Residents engaged intensively with breaking news on social media, while hesitating to believe any information “even the positive kind”, according to a volunteer in Al-Mansoura. The following table presents the main rumours recorded and the level of belief in them:
| Rumour | Level of belief | Note |
| Imminent record collapse of the rial beyond YER 2,500 per dollar and bankruptcy of the Central Bank (3–7 October) | High | Relative stability at about YER 1,565 per dollar after oversight measures |
| Aden’s power system out of service for weeks and fuel completely exhausted (5–8 October) | Medium | The emergency batch was delayed by only two days and turbines returned gradually |
| Aden International Airport closed permanently and civilian flights suspended (10–15 October) | High | The airport resumed operations and flights run on schedule |
| The Prime Minister killed or injured in the shelling of Maashiq Palace (15 October) | Very high | Denied by the Ministry of Information and the Prime Minister’s Office |
| Power stations completely shut down and the capital plunged into total darkness for days | Full belief | Fed by long outage hours; the system did not shut down completely |
| Houthi sleeper cells preparing bombings and assassinations in Al-Mansoura | Divided | Spread after cells were announced as arrested; no bombings recorded |
| A decision imposing a partial curfew and closing Al-Mansoura’s entry points at night | Divided | No announced decision; fuelled by inspection campaigns |
| A government decision banning the southern anthem and removing flags from schools | Low | Officially denied by the local council in Al-Mansoura |
| The Houthis entering Aden and the war moving to it in the coming days | Medium to high | No field indications of this; confrontations continue on the outskirts |
| The Transitional Council President returning to Aden to lead the “decisive battle” | High after the statement | Belief rose after his appearance in a televised speech |
| Hundreds wounded in the west-coast battles | Medium | No official figures available |
| An entire family killed in the Maashiq shelling | Undetermined | Not confirmed; the adopted toll is 6 dead and 16 injured among the guards |
| Displaced men and women infiltrating to spread news and destabilise security | Undetermined | Stigmatising rhetoric without field evidence |
The most influential rumours are clearly those that directly affect daily life (electricity, the airport and the currency) and those linked to fear of war, and they spread faster than official rebuttals. Rumours targeting displaced people also quickly turn into hostile behaviour in public spaces, which calls for swift official rebuttal through the same channels in which they spread.
Third: Market Movement and Food and Livelihood Security Indicators
The US dollar was relatively stable at YER 1,565 (buying) according to the price-tracking file, compared with YER 1,560 buying and 1,573 selling in Issue No. 12, while the Saudi riyal was recorded at YER 410 buying and 412 selling (4 October) and then 410 and 413 (13 October). The Central Bank in Aden announced the stability of exchange rates amid oversight measures on exchange establishments, closed 5 unlicensed exchange companies and extended the deadline for banks to regularise their status (7 October). Commercial activity was described in two-thirds of public-mood reports as “cautious” (shops open but trade light), compared with fully normal activity in Al-Tawahi, Dar Saad and parts of Al-Mansoura; commercial activity in Sirah suffered from the security threats around Maashiq.
Field-Recorded Price Indicators
The following figures are field observations, not standardised in methodology, collected by volunteers at different points of sale during the period; they should be read as indicative signs of price direction, not as a comprehensive official market survey. The range in Issue No. 12 is used as the baseline for comparison.
| Item / foodstuff | Range in Issue No. 12 | Recorded range (1–15 October) | Field notes and direction |
| Chicken (kg) | 4,000 – 8,500 | 3,500 – 8,000 | Slight fall in the ceiling; 4,500–5,200 in Al-Mansoura and 5,500–8,000 in Sheikh Othman; reports from the start of the second half of the month indicate a new rise (6,000–7,000 in Dar Saad) |
| Qat (bundle) | 10,000 – 40,000 | 3,000 – 50,000 | Sharp disparity; 15,000–20,000 in Al-Mansoura and up to 50,000 for the finest varieties in Sheikh Othman as winter sets in |
| Cooking oil (litre) | 2,250 – 3,125 (calculated from a 4-litre container at 9,000–12,500) | 3,600 – 4,200 | Clear rise in the price per litre (mid-range from about 2,690 to 3,900 rials, i.e. roughly +45%); 5-litre container 18,000–20,000 in Al-Mansoura |
| Flour (50 kg sack) | 32,000 – 50,000 | 45,000 – 52,000 | Rise at both the lower and upper limits; 48,000–52,000 in Al-Mansoura, and 900–1,000 per kilo |
| Rice (kg) | 2,200 – 2,500 | 1,800 – 3,100 | Wider range depending on variety; 2,800–3,100 in Al-Mansoura and 1,800 in Dar Saad |
| Sugar (kg) | 1,000 – 1,800 | 1,100 – 2,000 | Slight rise in the ceiling |
| Bread (piece/loaf) | 70 – 200 | 50 – 150 | Rooti mostly 70–100; three loaves for 200 rials in Sheikh Othman |
| US dollar (buying) | 1,560 | 1,565 | Relative stability |
The comparison confirms that the staples carrying the most weight in households’ baskets, led by flour, continued to rise from Issue No. 12, while chicken, sugar, rice and bread prices remained within close ranges, with sharp disparities between districts and varieties. The following table compares the prices of 15 basic goods and commodities between September and October 2026 according to the price-tracking file prepared by the platform’s volunteers; all of them rose without exception, with a simple average change of 8.0% and a median of 8.0%.
Staples, Fuel and Exchange Rates: September vs October
| Item / commodity | Unit | September 2026 | October 2026 | Difference | Change |
| White wheat flour | 50 kg sack | 46,000 | 49,500 | +3,500 | +7.6% |
| Fine white sugar | 50 kg sack | 55,000 | 58,500 | +3,500 | +6.4% |
| Basmati rice | 20 kg sack | 38,000 | 41,000 | +3,000 | +7.9% |
| Vegetable cooking oil | 20-litre can | 39,000 | 42,500 | +3,500 | +9.0% |
| Powdered milk | 2.5 kg tin | 24,000 | 26,000 | +2,000 | +8.3% |
| Local table eggs | Tray of 30 eggs | 5,000 | 5,600 | +600 | +12.0% |
| Local mutton | 1 kg | 20,000 | 22,000 | +2,000 | +10.0% |
| Imported frozen chicken | Carton (10 birds) | 34,000 | 37,000 | +3,000 | +8.8% |
| Local petrol (Oil Company) | 20-litre can | 27,000 | 28,400 | +1,400 | +5.2% |
| Commercial petrol (imported) | 20-litre can | 30,000 | 32,400 | +2,400 | +8.0% |
| Diesel for vehicles and transport | 20-litre can | 29,000 | 31,500 | +2,500 | +8.6% |
| Domestic gas cylinder (official) | Cylinder | 7,000 | 7,500 | +500 | +7.1% |
| Gas cylinder (black market) | Cylinder | 14,000 | 16,500 | +2,500 | +17.9% |
| Saudi riyal exchange rate | Buying | 405 | 412 | +7 | +1.7% |
| US dollar exchange rate | Buying | 1,540 | 1,565 | +25 | +1.6% |
The black-market gas cylinder topped the list of increases (17.9%), followed by local table eggs (12.0%), affected by the rising prices of imported feed, and local mutton (10.0%), due to scarce supply and the higher cost of transporting livestock. Basic imported goods (oil, milk, frozen chicken, rice and flour) rose by between 7.6% and 9.0%, affected by shipping and marine-insurance charges. By contrast, the change in the exchange rate did not exceed 1.7%, which indicates that the rise in prices is mostly due to shipping and transport costs and scarce supplies, not to currency depreciation alone.
Fish, Vegetable and Fruit Prices: Three Snapshots During the Period
As in Issue No. 12, which presented three price snapshots (16, 24 and 30 September), the price-tracking file for this issue provides three dated snapshots (1, 10 and 15 October) of the price per kilo in the Sirah and Al-Mansoura central markets, making it possible to track the trend within the period and link it to the previous issue:
| Item | 1 October | 10 October | 15 October | Change (1→15) |
| Tuna (thamad) | 12,000 | 14,000 | 16,000 | +33.3% |
| Bayad fish | 12,000 | 12,000 | 12,000 | 0.0% |
| Sakhla fish | 18,000 | 19,000 | 20,000 | +11.1% |
| Derak fish (kingfish) | 24,000 | 24,000 | 24,000 | 0.0% |
| Potatoes | 1,200 | 1,100 | 1,000 | -16.7% |
| Red onions | 1,800 | 2,000 | 2,000 | +11.1% |
| Tomatoes | 1,000 | 900 | 800 | -20.0% |
| Hot pepper (bisbas) | 2,500 | 2,800 | 3,000 | +20.0% |
| Carrots | 2,500 | 2,800 | 3,000 | +20.0% |
| Okra | 2,200 | 2,600 | 3,000 | +36.4% |
| Aubergine | 1,000 | 1,000 | 1,000 | 0.0% |
| Courgette | 1,000 | 1,000 | 1,000 | 0.0% |
| Cucumber | 1,000 | 1,000 | 1,000 | 0.0% |
| Sweet apples | 4,000 | 4,200 | 4,500 | +12.5% |
| Imported oranges | 4,000 | 4,200 | 4,500 | +12.5% |
| Watermelon | 500 | 550 | 600 | +20.0% |
| Local bananas | 800 | 1,000 | 1,000 | +25.0% |
| Papaya | 800 | 900 | 1,000 | +25.0% |
The snapshots reveal two opposite trends: a fall in tomatoes (20%) and potatoes (16.7%) with plentiful shipments from the farms of Tuban and Lahj (tomatoes reached YER 800 per kilo on 6 October), against a sharp rise in okra (36.4%), tuna (33.3%), bananas and papaya (25%), and pepper, carrots and watermelon (20%). The Sirah fish market recorded relative stability at the start of the month (tuna 12,000 and derak 24,000), before prices jumped on 14 October (tuna 16,000 and sakhla 20,000), continuing the rise documented in Issue No. 12 due to the cost of fuel for fishing boats.
Compared with the last snapshot in Issue No. 12 (30 September), there is a fall in tomatoes, potatoes, cucumber and bananas, and a rise in onions, okra and apples. However, the sharp difference in tomatoes between 30 September (1,500–1,700) and 1 October (1,000) most likely reflects differences in points of sale between the two sources rather than an actual change within a single day. Platform follow-up also noted a gap between the prices announced in the Al-Mansoura market on 9 October (onions 2,000 and potatoes 1,100) and actual prices in grocery shops (2,400–2,500 for onions and 1,200–1,500 for potatoes).
Parallel Regulatory Failures
Alongside the successful inspection campaigns, the period recorded notable regulatory failures: first, the persisting gap between the official price of a gas cylinder (YER 7,500) and its black-market price (YER 16,500) despite the publication of the list of 67 stations; second, the absence of any oversight of fish prices as recommended by Issue No. 12; and third, the rise in water-tanker prices to YER 18,000–22,000 in the districts cut off from pumping, with no announced official tariff. In addition, congestion caused by informal markets in Al-Saila market and the Al-Hashimi bus station in Sheikh Othman continued, and some food agents manipulated retail prices.
Positive Notes on the Margins of the Economic Picture
- Relative stability in the exchange rate after the Central Bank’s oversight measures and the closure of unlicensed exchange companies, with a slight fall in the price of 21-carat gold in the Crater gold market.
- Lower prices for tomatoes and potatoes with plentiful supply, and stable prices for aubergine, courgette, cucumber, bayad and derak throughout the period.
- Inspection campaigns in Sheikh Othman, Al-Mansoura, Al-Tawahi and Al-Mualla that led to the closure of 4 gas stations that raised prices, the detection of a bakery cheating with red flour, and the destruction of expired food.
- Active shipping traffic in the ports of the Gulf of Aden, with Aden Port receiving two container ships and a fuel tanker at the commercial berth in Al-Mualla, and the government announcing, in coordination with the Saudi Development and Reconstruction Program for Yemen, a move to modernise the Aden Refinery and launch studies for the electricity interconnection project.
- Meetings of the Minister of Planning and International Cooperation with the World Bank and the Arab Fund for Economic and Social Development to finance emergency interventions in water networks, power stations and rainwater drainage.
Fourth: Detailed Indicators by District Across the Three Axes
Based on the field indicators recorded, the following table shows the status of each district across three axes (state of services and infrastructure; safety and the urban environment; public mood and the security situation), with an estimate of each district’s overall status (very critical / worrying, verging on critical / worrying / relatively stable). The following map displays this classification on the administrative-division map of Aden Governorate:
| District | State of services and infrastructure | Safety and the urban environment | Public mood and the security situation |
| Sheikh Othman (very critical) | Water cut for more than 3 years; electricity 2-3 h supply/7-10 h outage; gas with difficulty; sewage office unresponsive | Exposed wires, pits, sewage overflow and piled rubbish; informal markets; staff shortages in health complexes | Worry and discontent; “the war will drag on”; land grabbing and fabricated charges; suspect arrested for an attempted assassination in Al-Mamdara |
| Sirah (very critical – new classification) | Water stopped for days until 11 October with severe cuts in the hillside areas; water tanker 18,000 | Six-missile attack on the Maashiq and Huqat area: 6 dead, 16 injured and damage to civilians’ homes; commercial activity affected | Worry and fear of “a return of the 2015 war”; journalist detained; health and cultural events at Aden Mall |
| Al-Buraiqa (very critical) | Electricity 2-3 h supply/5-7 h outage; mixed pumping; gas readily available; institutions operating normally | Missile fell in Salah Al-Din (15 October); displacement camps; permanent National Security checkpoints | Worry with neutrality; “stable after strong reinforcements”; Transitional Council supporters back in the square |
| Al-Mansoura (worrying, verging on critical – raised) | Electricity 2-3 h supply/4-7 h outage; water cut for days; health complex partly running on generators | Armed land grabbing and clashes between Al-Haswa and Bir Fadl; Al-Nakheel Mall fire; drone near Rimi; overflow on Al-Tisseen Street | Worry and discontent over electricity and prices, with welcome for the District Director’s field visits; displaced people crowded in hotels |
| Dar Saad (worrying, verging on critical) | Electricity 2-3 h supply/3-4 h outage (the best); continuous pumping; gas with difficulty; solar lighting in Al-Dumaina | “Catastrophic” overflow in Al-Luhoom and Al-Musabbin; exposed wires; night-time thefts; theft gang arrested | Tension and fear of developments; normal markets; support for the forces’ advance on the west coast |
| Al-Tawahi (worrying, verging on critical) | Water stopped for days and weak in Al-Fath and Jabal Al-Tilal; water tanker 20,000; bakery violations detected | Al-Qalua cordoned off, movement restricted and a displaced person evicted; recurrent overflow on the main street of Al-Qalua | Relatively reassured, with worry about drones at dawn; normal markets; praise for the repair of the Hujaif road |
| Khor Maksar (worrying – raised) | Water cut to neighbourhoods for days; water tanker 22,000; improved electricity (15 October) | Targeting of the airport area (7, 9–10 and 14 October); person arrested with hand grenades; road closures | Broad mass mobilisation; assault on a media crew; calls to rehabilitate the Al-Shahid Jaafar Corniche |
| Al-Mualla (worrying) | Water affected by pumping-station shutdowns; main line repaired on Mudram Street; expired food destroyed | Thefts of gas cylinders and belongings next to homes; land-grab attempts and old disputes | Worry and discontent; hostile rhetoric toward the displaced; cautious markets and difficult transport |
Urgent Recommendations to the Relevant Bodies (Response Map)
Based on the field and humanitarian indicators recorded by the female and male volunteers of the “Radar Aden” platform in the first half of October, we place the following package of immediate interventions before decision-makers through parallel response tracks, each linked to an incident or indicator presented in this report:
Track One: To Aden Governorate
Assess the damage to civilians’ homes in Sirah caused by the 15 October attack and compensate those affected, and document the cases of affected civilians and include them in support and compensation programmes. Publish the texts of official decisions and instructions (security and service-related) as soon as they are issued through the accredited channels, and deny those that have not been issued, to limit rumours of a curfew, a ban on the anthem and the closure of the airport. Complete the solar power project for health facilities in Al-Buraiqa and Sirah recommended by Issue No. 12, and provide organised shelter sites for displaced people as an alternative to hotels and hospitals.
Track Two: To the Ministry of Interior and Aden Security Command
Tie any detention or arrest to an order from the Public Prosecution and inform families of places of detention; stop hotel raids and arbitrary arrests of displaced people and investigate complaints of financial extortion. Revoke any instructions issued by police stations barring displaced people from renting housing, and review the cordon measures in Al-Qalua so as to preserve residents’ right to freedom of movement. Regulate filming at military and sensitive sites through written, published rules instead of detention; protect journalists and media crews; firmly confront armed land grabbing between Al-Haswa and Bir Fadl; and establish the humanitarian protocol for dealing with migrants recommended by Issue No. 12.
Track Three: To the Civil Defence and Protection Bodies
Circulate warning and shelter guidance to residents near the airport, Maashiq and military camps, and build on the evacuation drill carried out on 10 October by extending it to schools, markets and shopping centres. Review fire-safety requirements in shopping centres, particularly external cladding materials, in light of the Al-Nakheel Mall fire, and secure access routes for firefighting teams and prevent crowds from gathering around incident sites.
Track Four: To the Electricity Corporation and the Public Water Corporation
Maintain regular diesel supplies to power stations to consolidate the improvement that began on 9 October, and announce a fair supply schedule between districts that addresses the gap in Sheikh Othman. Give power priority to the water-pumping stations in Al-Barzakh and the Bir Ahmed fields to avoid water cuts to Sirah, Al-Tawahi, Al-Mualla and Khor Maksar, and clearly announce the rotational pumping programme and its schedules, with priority for the Abdullah Ghanem neighbourhood and the hillside areas of Sirah. Fix the breakdown of the sewage pumping station in Dar Saad and the overflows in Al-Luhoom and Al-Musabbin, and activate responses to reports of sewage blockages in Sheikh Othman.
Track Five: To the Ministry of Trade and Industry
Monitor compliance of the 67 announced gas stations with the official price (YER 7,500) and pursue black-market sales (YER 16,500); activate oversight of the fish markets, where tuna rose 33.3% in two weeks; and set an indicative tariff for water tankers. Publish weekly reference prices for staples and vegetables, address the gap between announced and actual prices, and extend Al-Mansoura’s successful oversight model to the other districts.
Track Six: To the Public Prosecution and Judiciary
Conduct a legal review of cases of detention without prosecution orders and release those whose detention has no legal basis; announce the fate of migrants detained in the end-of-September campaigns; investigate the assault on the media crew while covering the 14 October event and the detention of the journalist on 15 October; and issue a public update on the cases open since Issue No. 11.
Track Seven: To the Ministry of Public Health and Population and Humanitarian Organisations
Build on the medical convoy for dialysis and oncology centres by ensuring sustained supply; support the Al-Mansoura health complex, which is partly running on generators; and address the shortage of staff and medicines in the Kod Al-Othmani and Sheikh Othman Central complexes. Support psychosocial support programmes for children and families in areas affected by the targeting, and social-cohesion programmes to counter stigmatising rhetoric against displaced people.
Track Eight: To the Ministry of Education and the Universities
Settle the file of teachers’ pay and allowances to avoid a renewed strike; provide schools with alternatives to the intermittent electricity supply; adopt evacuation and safety plans for schools near targeted facilities; review the requirements for allocating specialisations at the Faculty of Administrative Sciences at the University of Aden following the absence of second-level students; and address the housing conditions of students from Shabwa Governorate.
Comparisons Across Successive Issues
The following two graphics document the evolution of district classifications and staple prices across Issues No. 11, 12 and 13 (September–October 2026), allowing medium-term trends to be read rather than relying on a single period’s snapshot:
The comparison shows that flour is the item with the largest rise across the three issues (mid-range from 25,700 to 41,000 and then 48,500 rials per sack), and that qat continued to rise as winter set in, while chicken, rice and sugar prices remained within similar ranges. On classification, Sheikh Othman remains the only district classified “very critical” in all three issues without interruption, while Sirah and Khor Maksar entered the danger zone for the first time because of missile targeting.
Annex: Timeline of Documented Events During the Period
| Date | District | Event |
| 1 October | Sirah (Aden Mall) | Launch of the “Pink Tent” breast-cancer awareness campaign (1–5 October) and the “Wejha” cultural and environmental tourism exhibition (1–2 October) |
| 2 October | Al-Mansoura (Al-Mamlah – Rimi) | A shot-down drone fell less than 100 metres from a residential area; launch of a polio vaccination campaign |
| 2 October | Al-Mualla / Al-Tawahi | Main water pipeline repaired on Al-Shahid Mudram Street; price violators caught at bakeries in Al-Tawahi |
| 3 October | Dar Saad (Al-Luhoom) | “Catastrophic” sewage overflow and appeals for urgent intervention |
| 4 October | Al-Mansoura / Al-Buraiqa | 4 commercial gas stations closed; complaints of hotel raids and arbitrary arrests of displaced people; health kits for Al-Buraiqa camps |
| 4 October | Sheikh Othman (Al-Mamdara) | Suspect arrested for the attempted assassination of a citizen |
| 5 October | Al-Mualla | An altercation on a public bus reflects rising hostile rhetoric toward the displaced |
| 6 October | Al-Mansoura | Major fire at Al-Nakheel Mall with heavy material losses; closed for nearly a week |
| 7 October | Khor Maksar | Three successive explosions from intercepted missiles and drones aimed at the airport and Badr camp |
| 7 October | Al-Tawahi (Al-Qalua) | Security cordon, restricted entry and exit, and a displaced person evicted from his home |
| 7 October | Aden (general) | Central Bank closes 5 unlicensed exchange companies; circular banning celebratory gunfire at occasions |
| 8 October | Aden (general) | 30,000 metric tonnes of diesel unloaded for power stations; school bags for the poorest families in Dar Saad |
| 9 October | Khor Maksar | Drones and missiles targeting the airport area intercepted and a flight diverted to Al-Rayyan Airport; pharmacy inspection campaign |
| 10 October | Aden (general) | Flights resume regularly; gradual improvement in electricity; Civil Defence evacuation drill |
| 11 October | Sirah / Al-Tawahi | Water pumping resumes; arrival of a 9-truck Saudi medical convoy; new intensive care unit at Al-Jumhuriya Hospital |
| 12 October | Al-Mansoura / Khor Maksar | Free camp for the early detection of eye diseases; crowds stream in from the governorates toward Al-Orood Square |
| 13 October | Khor Maksar | Thousands gather in Al-Orood Square awaiting the Transitional Council President’s statement; roads closed |
| 14 October | Khor Maksar | The major mass event marking the 14 October Revolution anniversary; two missiles fall around the airport; assault on a media crew |
| 15 October | Sirah (Maashiq) | Six-missile attack on the area around Maashiq Palace; damage to civilians’ homes; journalist detained (according to circulated posts) |